- Baltic Exchange Non Publishing Dates – May
Due to a Singapore public holiday, the Baltic Exchange will not be publishing its BEP-Asia, BES-Asia and BITR-Asia on Tuesday, 29 May 2018.
BEP-Asia, BES-Asia and BITR-Asia will be published again on Wednesday, 30 May 2018.
Due to UK public holidays, the Baltic Exchange will not be publishing its Dry, Tanker (including LPG), Sale & Purchase or Demolition Assessments on Monday, 28 May 2018.
There will also be no publication of FFA volumes, Dry Option Volume Estimates or Baltic Forward Assessment curves (dry & wet).
All indices including Sale & Purchase Assessments, Demolition Assessments, FFA volumes and estimates and BFA curves will be published on Tuesday, 29 May 2018.
Any questions or comments should be directed to firstname.lastname@example.org
- YBA London drinks
The Young Baltic Association (YBA), London, will be holding a drinks reception at Flight Club on 31 May.
‘Bringing something completely different to the London bar scene, Flight Club is one of London’s most talked about fun-time bars. Re-imagining everything you think you know about darts!
Gone are the days of dodgy maths and writing on chalkboards, Social Darts uses real-time scoring created by an actual rocket scientist to change Britain’s favourite pastime forever. Combined with some awesome animated scoring and a slick touch screen interface. The result? A super fun and fast social experience‘.
Food and drink are free, with limited spaces still available for full teams of 6.
YBA events welcome all Baltic members under the age of 35.
For more details, click here.
- Baltic Exchange and ICS Lunchtime Lectures
The Baltic Exchange and Institute of Chartered Shipbrokers series of bi-monthly lectures returns to Shanghai, Singapore, Athens and London on 30 May.
Money Walks / Money Talks – A masterclass in the hedging and financial instruments used by shipping principals will be the theme in Singapore, London and Athens with guest speakers as followed:
Singapore: Raghu Raghunath,
Former Head of Noble Chartering Ltd
London: John Banaskiewicz, MD,
Freight Investor Services
Athens: Katerina Stathopoulou,
Executive Director, Investments & Finance
In Shanghai, the focus will be Shipping Supply-Demand Dynamics. The seminar, with guest speaker, Tan Say Liang, General Manager, Shanghai, SGX, will examine the economic factors that have caused the major changes in shipping rates over the past 12 months and look into what is anticipated to cause the most impact on freight markets throughout the remainder of 2018.
The lectures are free to Baltic and Institute Members, with non-member prices as followed:
£100 London / SG$100 Singapore /
¥500 Shanghai / €100 Athens
Light lunch included
Attendees must register by email to email@example.com using the appropriate reference code below:
BXICS05L (London)/ BXICS05SG (Singapore)/ BXICS05SH (Shanghai)/
To view the flyer, click here.
- Baltic Exchange Training Courses – June 2018
The Baltic Exchange is now taking bookings for its training courses in London and Singapore during June.
The courses offer high-level training to shipping, financial and commodity professionals. Courses taking place in June include:
Freight Derivatives & Shipping Risk Management (25-26 June, Singapore)
Delivered over two days by experts in the areas of shipping and commodity risk management, the Shipping Risk Management course aims to raise market awareness of risks involved in shipping businesses and how various physical and derivatives instruments can be used to control such risks efficiently and effectively. Participants will learn how to analyse and measure the impact of financial risks involved in shipping investment and operations, and how to select and execute effective strategies to minimise or eliminate such risks, stabilise their cash flow and maximise the return on investment more efficiently.
Advanced Freight Modelling and Training (27-28 June, Singapore)
This advanced two day module focuses on modelling freight rate dynamics and pricing options on freight. It discusses issues which are relevant to shipping market practitioners such as constructing forward curves on freight, modelling freight rate volatility as well as hedging and trading strategies using freight options. The course aims to provide delegates with both a theoretical foundation as well as practical hands-on experience.
Shipping Economics & Investment (18-19 June, London)
The course aims to provide delegates with both a theoretical foundation as well as practical hands-on experience on modern shipping economics and investment. It provides delegates with the essential knowledge of shipping economics, operations and investment management. The programme covers the microeconomic structure of the shipping markets including freight, second-hand, newbuilding and scrap markets and presents how these shipping markets interact.
For more information or to book onto one of these courses, click here.
- Iron Ore Week Photos
Photos from Monday’s drinks reception at Singapore Iron Ore Week are now up on the Baltic’s Flickr page.
To view them, click here.
- LAST CHANCE: Baltic Risk Forum At Posidonia
The final bookings are being taken for the Baltic Exchange’s Risk Forum at Posidonia. To register, click here.
Focusing on the issue of risk in the freight and shipping markets, the challenges and opportunities that these can present and what is available to help members manage their exposure, the programme will include:
- An A, B, C (and D & E) of how the Baltic helps members manage risk – Mark Jackson, CEO, Baltic Exchange
- A Perfect Match? Physical Indexation and the FFA Market – Duncan Dunn, Director, SSY Futures
- BDRY ETF: Democratizing Investing in Shipping – John Kartsonas, Managing Partner, Breakwave Advisors
- What are the Commercial Implications of the 2020 Sulphur Cap? – Mark Jackson, CEO,
Baltic Exchange, *new speaker confirmed* Theofanis Anastasiadis Projects Manager Starbulk, Brian Nixon, Managing Director, Lavinia Bulk Ltd. and Angelica Kemene, Head of Market Analysis & Intelligence, Optima Shipbrokers
The event takes place at the Yacht Club of Greece, 4 June (Forum 1100-1400, followed by lunch).
- Member update
The following individuals have applied for Membership of an existing member company:
Company Individual Simpson Spence Young Ltd Mr C Baxter Mr D Sims Mr J Tasker Mr S Penston Braemar ACM Shipbroking Ltd Mr H J B Lee British Hellenic Chamber of Commerce Ms A Kalliani Mr A Turner Clearlake Shipping Pte Ltd Mr T Jacot CMC – Coal Marketing Company Ltd Mr J M Luna Mr J Costello Lorentzen & Stemoco AS Mr G Meng Mr M Jia Ms L Jiang
The following individual has applied for Retired Membership:
Mr D W Perry
Any comments should be passed to Karen Karanicholas by 30 May 2018.
- Fehr Tennis Cup
On 27 June the Baltic Exchange will be holding the annual Fehr Cup at Surbiton Racket & Fitness Club.
Tennis, Pimms, summer lunch with strawberries and cream, this fantastic networking opportunity for tennis players of all levels is a must in the shipping social calendar. Taking place on the grass courts of Surbiton and including lunch and tea in the clubhouse, the tournament is split into two parts after an initial stage which gives, more social players an afternoon of relaxed open competition in the American Tournament, while the pros peel off to dual for the big ‘Fehr Cup’ prize.
Entry, including lunch and refreshments, is £70 per pair.
For more details, please email:
Catharine Bacon – firstname.lastname@example.org
Perry Perera – email@example.com
- The US-China commodities consequences
Fears of a trade war between the US and China have dominated the headlines of late — though it appears as if those concerns be allayed for now. In May, US Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin said that the US-China trade war was “on hold” after the countries agreed to drop their tariff threats while they worked on a wider trade deal — although he subsequently said that there had never been a trade war and that he meant “trade dispute”. A day prior to Mr Mnuchin’s announcement, both nations said they had forged “a consensus on taking effective measures to substantially reduce the US trade deficit in goods with China”, that China had agreed on “meaningful increases in US agriculture and energy exports”, with details to be worked out when the US sends a team to the country, and that the Asian nation “will significantly increase purchases of US goods and services”. A day after Mr Mnuchin’s claim, US President Donald Trump tweeted that “China has agreed to buy massive amounts of ADDITIONAL Farm/Agricultural Products” [sic].
Discussing the pause of the tariffs while the framework for reducing the US-China trade deficit was worked on, Mr Mnuchin said: “We are immediately going to follow this up with [Commerce Secretary Wilbur] Ross going [to China] with very hard commitments in agriculture, where we expect to see a very big increase — 35-40% increases — in agriculture this year alone — in energy, doubling the energy purchases. I think that you could see $50bn, $60bn a year of energy purchases over the next three to five years and strategically, that’s very important for us and very important for them.”
The commodities effect
It’s ironic that in the US-China trade war epic, commodities have gone from being a great casualty to now being set to be a big beneficiary (what with China vowing to import more American products). What’s more, there are implications for dry bulk commodities. One product that will likely be included in the truce is soybeans, one of the US-China trade war’s main battlegrounds. Additionally, most of the roughly $20bn in annual US agribusiness trade with China features the product. The beans constitute $14bn of US exports to China, but chief analyst with Shanghai JC Intelligence Co. Li Qiang said that China could put up their annual US soy imports to over 40m to 50m metric tonnes. Upon news of China and the US’ potential ‘ceasefire’, soybean prices on the Chicago Board of Trade commodity exchange increased as much as 2.4%.
“I’m cautiously optimistic that the talks are going to possibly stop the tariffs — or at least they’re talking about it, anyway,” commented president of the American Soybean Association John Heisdorffer.
China [has] agreed on ‘meaningful increases in US agriculture and energy exports’
Lately, buyers have been staying away from American supplies because of uncertainty regarding whether the government would go ahead with its planned tariffs. The Chinese government last month threatened putting a 25% levy on the imports of US soybeans, and if that were to occur, it would increase American beans’ price for Chinese buyers and render South American beans more appealing. Whereas China last year bought around 33m tonnes of soybeans from the US, the Asian nation took delivery of over 50m tonnes of the beans from Brazil in the same period. Terry Reilly, senior commodity analyst for Futures International, felt that increasing US soybean exports in the short term would be difficult.
“I’m a firm believer that China will continue … to take what they committed from Brazil — and it will be tough to really boost US soybean exports over the short term,” said Mr Reilly, explaining that China has already essentially contracted out about two or three months’ worth of buying — mainly from South America.
There are other US agricultural items that could profit from boosted imports from China, such as sorghum and distillers’ dried grains. In May, the Chinese government got rid of an anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigation into American sorghum purchases. China bought around $1.1bn worth of US sorghum in 2017, but last month, the Asian nation placed 179% dumping duties on sorghum imports. Following the imposition of the sorghum tariff, a number of cargoes of the commodity destined for Chinese ports became stranded due to the fact that grain handlers would have had to pay the big levies (some of the sorghum shipments were eventually rerouted to Japan, Saudi Arabia and Spain).
“We hope the dismissal of these cases reflects a lessening of trade tensions as our leaders continue to dialogue,” said Don Bloss, chairman of the American organisation National Sorghum Producers.
Uncertain trade relations
However, a trade deal between the US and China is still on shaky ground. With a summit between President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un due to take place in Singapore on June 12, Cowen Washington Research Group strategic Chris Krueger said that the meeting could decide whether the US-China trade agreement progresses.
“So long as Singapore is pending, we do not believe these tariffs will be implemented, but once the summit ends, game on,” said Mr Krueger. “In our opinion, as goes the summit, so go the tariffs.”
At the time of writing, however, the meeting between the US and North Korean leaders hung in the balance. While hosting South Korea’s President Moon Jae-in at the White House near the end of May, President Trump claimed there was a “very substantial chance” that the summit might not occur, stating that North Korea needed to meet conditions for the meeting to take place (though he did say the summit might occur “later” if the planned meeting did not happen). North Korea has claimed it may call off the event if the US insists that the country renounces nuclear weapons unilaterally.
Aside from North Korea’s potential role in a US-China trade agreement, it’s a complicated time for Present Trump as it is when it comes to tariffs. Towards the end of May, it was reported that Russia, Japan and Turkey had sent bills concerning how much US tariffs would add to the cost of steel and aluminium exports to the US (based on trade from last year), following similar moves from China, India and the EU. Just a few days prior to this, it was reported that Japan, the US’ fourth-biggest export market in 2016, was considering putting levies on US imports worth $409m in response to President Trump’s tariffs on the metals. The retaliatory taxes would have an equal value to duties the US imposed through its levies, according to Japan’s national public broadcasting organisation NHK, but will be viewed as a bargaining tool to persuade the US government to make Japan exempt from the tariffs. And that’s not forgetting that, according to Kevin Cirilli, “we’re just ahead of the June 1 deadline that the President has said would be looming over for regards to whether or not he wants to make permanent the steel and aluminium tariff increases for Mexico and Canada for NAFTA”. Additionally, the EU is said to be bracing itself for a trade war with the US after the Trump administration signalled that it would not extend the temporary exemption for EU companies from the metal tariffs, which is due to end on June 1.